Bonus EV Calculator
Is that casino bonus actually worth taking? Calculate the expected value.
📊 Bonus Expected Value Calculator
Enter deposit and bonus details to determine if the bonus has positive expected value.
FAQ
❓ What does +EV mean for a casino bonus?
A +EV (positive expected value) bonus means you'll statistically profit from clearing it. This happens when the bonus amount exceeds the expected losses from wagering.
❓ How is expected value calculated?
EV = Bonus Amount - (Total Wager × House Edge). If EV is positive, the bonus is worth taking mathematically.
❓ What house edge should I use?
For slots, use 3-5%. For blackjack with basic strategy, use 0.5-1%. For roulette, use 2.7% (European) or 5.26% (American).
Understanding Bonus Expected Value
Expected value (EV) is the most important concept for evaluating casino bonuses. It tells you, on average, how much you can expect to gain or lose by accepting and clearing a bonus. A positive EV (+EV) bonus is one where the bonus amount exceeds the expected cost of clearing the wagering requirement.
The EV Formula
The calculation is straightforward: EV = Bonus Amount - (Total Wager Required × House Edge). For a $100 bonus with 40x wagering playing slots with a 3% house edge: EV = $100 - ($4,000 × 0.03) = $100 - $120 = -$20. This bonus has negative expected value — you'd lose $20 on average.
When Are Bonuses +EV?
A bonus becomes +EV when the wagering multiplier is low enough relative to the house edge. The breakeven formula is: Max Wagering = Bonus% ÷ House Edge. With a 100% bonus and 3% house edge, any wagering under 33x would be +EV. With a 200% bonus, up to 67x would still be +EV.
House Edge by Game Type
Your game choice dramatically affects EV. Blackjack with perfect basic strategy has only 0.5% house edge, making almost any bonus +EV. Video slots average 3-4%, and live game shows can run 5%+. However, remember that many casinos restrict table game contributions to wagering — a 10% contribution rate effectively multiplies the wagering requirement by 10.
Beyond Pure Mathematics
EV calculations assume infinite play. In practice, variance matters. A +EV bonus can still result in losses, and a -EV bonus can still produce wins. The key is that over many bonuses, +EV decisions will accumulate profits. Professional bonus hunters focus exclusively on +EV opportunities.
Maximizing Bonus Value
To get the most from casino bonuses: prioritize low wagering multipliers, play games with the lowest house edge that contribute 100% to wagering, avoid high-variance games if you want consistent results, and never deposit more than you can afford to lose regardless of the mathematical expectation.